*Editor’s Note – The Wall Street Journal published an article, Construction Work Resumes, but Demand Weakens. At DuckerFrontier, our Building & Construction industry experts are constantly in communication with industry participants who report a positive outlook for the construction industry coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Managing Principal Chris Fisher shares his latest insights on construction demand following the current recessionary period.
Its important to note that residential new and remodeling were off to a great start in 2020 – with activity up over 11% for residential and 5% up for nonresidential for same time last year, which makes any quick slowdown more visible compared to a few weeks earlier. Similarly, building material suppliers and producers are coming off of record quarter performance in Q1, leveraging high levels of winter buy, growth in construction activity and continued work due to better weather. Concerns from Q2 abound but the cyclical nature of the construction industry has sensitized many as most are looking to determine the timing and pace of recovery.
COVID-19 will shift our design, build and construction industry – with implications to single-family home affordability, space and storage solutions, growth in rental vs. owning business models and resurgence of X-urban or rural living.
The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted an above-average cyclical transition in the construction industry and changed the demand drivers for recovery. Construction was performing well late into the cycle, experiencing a surge in activity across many sectors in the first quarter of 2020, particularly in the new residential segment. As the pandemic spread to North America, many active projects have been deemed “essential” by government authorities, but new business permits were withheld.
DuckerFrontier’s Building & Construction experts have broken down our expectations for residential new construction, residential remodeling, and nonresidential new construction through 2021 and provided insights into the post-pandemic landscape for the industry.
Residential New Construction: We have seen mixed activity in new home construction due to policy differences across states and confusion around “essential” classifications. Builders and contractors are struggling to obtain permits for both new and in-process projects, with few communities offering virtual inspections. Both companies and workers want to remain in operation, though new policy regulations have created uncertainty and often confusion around guidelines.
As states begin to examine reopening in stages and evaluating “essential/non-essential” construction, the mortgage industry still recovering from a five-year low, saw a 12% increase in purchase applications this last week. This could be a sign of an upturn in the pandemic-delayed spring home-buying season, as coronavirus lock down restrictions slowly ease across various markets and states.
Residential Remodeling: Functional and performance repairs and remodels are continuing, while less critical luxury updates are slowing, and new planning has ceased altogether. Homeowners in high COVID-19 case regions are limiting contractor access or entrance into homes and are prioritizing DIY projects as families are staying home.
Nonresidential New Construction: All segments of nonresidential building typically decline in recessionary conditions. Design build projects are moving out phases of construction to deal with local regulations and labor. Architectural firms report new project delays or projects are put on hold, yet 30% are continuing, many with purpose redesign inquiries. Design and development firms are planning for innovation in healthcare facility design post-pandemic.
The construction landscape post-pandemic is still a mystery, though the industry will face a new set of challenges and practices leading to an uneven recovery. Unemployment and consumer confidence are likely to have a significant impact on consumers’ intent and ability to purchase a new home, though historically, custom home building has recovered the quickest after a recessionary period. Pent-up demand leading into the crisis will weaken or shift into rental solutions and potentially last into the middle of the next cycle.
Multifamily fundamentals were healthy coming into the crisis, however single-family homes are beginning to dominate most of the demand. Low rise, less dense unit structures in suburban areas will be preferred after the virus, though multifamily construction is likely to see a healthy recovery.
Small and lower cost DIY projects are also likely to continue, with spending primarily driven by repair or critical improvements to homes. Therefore, kitchen and bath remodels as well as luxury interior offerings are likely to suffer.
Low-rise multifamily construction – suburban and rural areas
Warehouse and distribution facilities – digitalization and healthcare/public safety related
Repurposed facilities for healthcare
Stay tuned in the coming days as our experts take a deep dive into COVID-19’s impact on building and construction infrastructure and what the post pandemic landscape looks like.
DuckerFrontier’s Building & Construction team is at the forefront of key trends impacting the industry amid COVID-19 disruptions. Visit our COVID-19 Resource Hub for the latest insights and implications for global business, or contact us to connect with a team member.