DuckerFrontier has revised its Latin America economic growth forecast for 2020 from -0.2% a week ago to -2.5%. This marks the third consecutive revision since January, when we were expecting LATAM to grow by 1.4% this year. All top markets in Latin America will be in recession this year following heavy COVID-19 restriction measures outside and inside the region, which will depress both domestic and external demand. All markets should start rebounding in Q3 of this year, but this timing is contingent upon whether countries are successful at bringing the coronavirus outbreak to a halt to be able to lift social distancing measures, and the extent to which social distancing measures provoke lasting damage to their economies.
Last week, DuckerFrontier held a webinar to help multinational clients understand the implications of COVID-19 on LATAM’s economic performance. The presentation covered the assumptions underpinning our base case forecasts to help build a clear narrative and signposts to watch for easier internal communication. Managing Director for Latin America Research, Pablo Gonzalez, also explored how other multinationals are reacting to the current COVID-19 outbreak to protect their business in the region, reset their strategies, and redefine targets and priorities.
Watch the recording to learn more about COVID-19 scenarios for LATAM.
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